NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-9, 34.5)
Play on Pittsburgh minus the points
We already discussed the 4 point difference between the line in Saturday's matchup as opposed to the matchup between these same two teams 5 weeks ago, a closely contested affair in which Pittsburgh cracked open a tie game with 2 4th quarter TD's to win 17-6. What's even more intriguing is that Pittsburgh enjoyed a 12-2 advantage in penalties in that game. The Jets are 59-14-5$ as road dogs when they hold the opposition to less than 24 points, and as illustrated by the low total, this is expected to be a low scoring game.
We respect Herm Edwards ability to keep a game close, and we note that statistically, these teams are fairly close. However, we are going to lean toward the Steelers on their home field to win easily today. Pittsburgh is a mind-boggling 83-11$ in their last 94 wins vs. an opponent off a win, and the Jets have never beaten the Lers in the Steel City. In the four meetings between these two teams since the turn of the century, the Jets have scored a total of 22 points. Note that Pittsburgh has CB Scott, RB Staley, and WR Burress on the field together for the first time in a long time, and the Jets are likely going to be without their top defensive player DE Abraham again. They are playing their third straight road game, and it has also been reported that the flu bug that sidelined Pennington this week ran through the entire squad. Matching up with a physical, rested Pittsburgh team is going to be very, very, difficult for New York.
Some tech stuff strengthens our arguement, as all road playoff teams off a road win are 28-47 ATS, including 12-28 if off an underdog win. Teams off a DD wildcard ATS win are 9-16$ in their next game, and teams off a playoff win that scored <21 are 10-22$. On the Pittsburgh side of things, home favorites -3.5> that went undefeated at home during the regular season are 17-8$. We realize this line moved over a couple of key numbers, but this is the playoff round where the REAL teams strut their stuff and we think Pittsburgh with some key players healthy really comes through with a big performance today.
Pittsburgh -9 (I got 8 earlier, but we'll go with 9 here) 2* Base Play
Play on Pittsburgh minus the points
We already discussed the 4 point difference between the line in Saturday's matchup as opposed to the matchup between these same two teams 5 weeks ago, a closely contested affair in which Pittsburgh cracked open a tie game with 2 4th quarter TD's to win 17-6. What's even more intriguing is that Pittsburgh enjoyed a 12-2 advantage in penalties in that game. The Jets are 59-14-5$ as road dogs when they hold the opposition to less than 24 points, and as illustrated by the low total, this is expected to be a low scoring game.
We respect Herm Edwards ability to keep a game close, and we note that statistically, these teams are fairly close. However, we are going to lean toward the Steelers on their home field to win easily today. Pittsburgh is a mind-boggling 83-11$ in their last 94 wins vs. an opponent off a win, and the Jets have never beaten the Lers in the Steel City. In the four meetings between these two teams since the turn of the century, the Jets have scored a total of 22 points. Note that Pittsburgh has CB Scott, RB Staley, and WR Burress on the field together for the first time in a long time, and the Jets are likely going to be without their top defensive player DE Abraham again. They are playing their third straight road game, and it has also been reported that the flu bug that sidelined Pennington this week ran through the entire squad. Matching up with a physical, rested Pittsburgh team is going to be very, very, difficult for New York.
Some tech stuff strengthens our arguement, as all road playoff teams off a road win are 28-47 ATS, including 12-28 if off an underdog win. Teams off a DD wildcard ATS win are 9-16$ in their next game, and teams off a playoff win that scored <21 are 10-22$. On the Pittsburgh side of things, home favorites -3.5> that went undefeated at home during the regular season are 17-8$. We realize this line moved over a couple of key numbers, but this is the playoff round where the REAL teams strut their stuff and we think Pittsburgh with some key players healthy really comes through with a big performance today.
Pittsburgh -9 (I got 8 earlier, but we'll go with 9 here) 2* Base Play
